Tuesday, September 05, 2017

Solving population problems


More than 80 countries, representing 46 percent of world population, are experiencing fertility below the replacement level of about two births per woman (Figure 1). In many of those countries, including Canada, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Italy, South Korea, Spain and the United Kingdom, fertility levels have remained below replacement for several decades.

Largely as a consequence of sustained levels low fertility about 50 countries or areas are projected to have smaller populations by mid-century. Some of those countries, including Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Ukraine, will likely see their populations decline by more than 15 percent by mid-century.

In addition, many countries are also experiencing rapid population aging. Due to low fertility rates and increased longevity, population age structures are becoming older than ever before. The median age of developed countries, for example, is now more than 40 years, an increase of 13 years since 1950. By midcentury the median age of about a dozen countries will be 50 years or more, including Japan (53 years), Spain (52), Italy (51) and Germany (50).

Also, in some countries, such as Greece Italy, Japan, Portugal and Spain, one in three people is expected to be 65 years and older by 2050. Consequently, potential support ratios in those countries are projected to decline to less than two people in the working ages 15 to 64 years per one elderly person aged 65 years and older
Paradoxically, in those many countries which are facing demographic decline and population aging, opposition to immigration is increasing among most migrant-receiving countries.  Opinion surveys report that majorities in dozens of countries, including Germany, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and the United States, consider immigration to have a “very or fairly negative impact”.  In addition to rising public opposition to immigration, governments in a growing number of countries are tightening border controls, erecting fences, walls, and barricades, and adopting policies to significantly restrict immigration.

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has called for a more rapid development of advanced robotics. He believes that robotics “could help the country overcome the handicap of a fast-aging populace and a declining workforce and to help the country to use robotics from large-scale factories to every corner of our economy and society”.


Such suggestions, however, do not address the needs of the millions of young people seeking employment in developing countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the population aged 15 to 24 years is expected to more than double by midcentury, exceeding more than 400 million youths. Seeking employment and a better life, many young men and women are deciding to migrate illegally to the industrialized countries. 

1 comment:

ajohnstone said...

http://www.dw.com/en/unity-report-doesnt-bode-well-for-eastern-germans/a-40377486

a rapidly aging population in all of the non-city states in the former East (Berlin is the exception) is going hand in hand with a lack of industrial diversity, structural as well as infrastructure problems and increasing financial woes at community level.
With lots of younger people turning their backs on homes particularly in eastern Germany's rural areas, the increasing share of elderly people has proven to be a major burden on social services, the report emphasizes...Between 1990 and 2015, the population of the five non-city states in eastern Germany shrank by 15 percent, from 14.8 million right after reunification in 1990 to 12.6 million inhabitants 15 years later.Despite the recent influx of migrants, current demographic trends are unlikely to change any time soon, the report notes. On the contrary, it expects the population in the former East to drop by another 800,000 people by 2030, which would mark a 7 percent decline from today's level.